An idea that has been emerging to me over the last month or so is that of a zero-growth society.  This launches the global paradigm shifts series - I have a few more up my sleeve!

The Concept

We have assumed that economic growth is an essential component to a successful society and increasing living standards.  But in a society where people are more and more focused on seeking happiness over simply wealth, surely we are reaching a stage where we can begin to accept stable living standards that don't increase every year but are simply enough and so stay the same year on year.  I'm not pretending to specify a full picture and the complications are vast but I find the concept somewhat compelling.

A Parallel

Giantism is an affliction for those suffering.  The body does not know when to stop producing growth hormones and as a result the body grows without limits.  Eventually, the stresses and strains created by the excessive height cause physical problems.  Our interaction with our planet can be similarly characterised.  We have been growing at a rate which has given some of us incredible standards of living but have we reached the natural limit of our growth.  Should we now stop producing our economic growth hormone?

The Problems

Firstly, this idea could sound like a form of dictated economic condition.  It is clear from experiments with communism that this is not a successful approach.  A possible solution, hybridising the free market model with a zero-growth model would start by shifting the incentive systems and reducing the reliance on economic growth created by economic structures like debt.  Incentives to alter economic behaviour abound in the UK - consider tax-credits, tax-free savings accounts, the EU carbon trading scheme.

A second problem, technological growth is the accepted saviour of classical economic growth models and can certainly be argued to solve the problem of unsustainable growth that we face today.  Indeed technological change is highly desirable.  The inclusion of incentives to achieve technological change in a zero-growth society would be essential and by no means impossible. 

A third, but by no means final problem, is clearly the period of transition between a growth-addicted and a zero-growth society. Theinterdependence of our economies in the modern world would require a unified global process which would slowly shift the incentive structures and introduce changes at a pace which would limit the economic pain associated with all economic changes.  Not to mention the inequality of living standards, elimination of which would be a pre-requisite.  In my mind this process could last 50-100 years.

A Target or an Explanatory Theory

The principle of a zero-growth society here is not an explanatory theory such as Solow's growth model which sought to explain the available information.  Rather it is a potential new paradigm - a goal to seek - a vision of the future. The Millenium Development Goals are a real inspiration in this context.  A global dream of erradicating poverty which has led to action from individuals, states, companies, charities.  As our interdependence increases, so our will to act together does and we need to start thinking about where to go once we have all the material wealth we need.

The Imperative

If the WWF are right and our use of resources exceeds the natural replacement rate, we are in a position where arguably, growth needs to stop.  If this is so, a transition to a new economic structure which incorporates zero-growth to conserve resources and maintain sustainable living standards for all is truly an imperative.

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